Virginia

4-5 (2-4 ACC) • Week 11 • 2026

@UVAFootball on X

TSR

3.0#57

Offense

27.9#65

Defense

24.9#52

SOS

10.86#48

PCR

0.497#80

RQI

-3.11#84

Next game

Sat, Nov 14GQI 6.3

19.4–32.0

19%

81%

Wk	Opponent	Rk	Off	Def	Result	Win%	GQI	Resume
1		72	70	93	W 34-8		8.0	+0.08
2		91	70	102	W 59-3		1.3	+0.00
3	N	58	31	123	L 27-38		8.8	−0.84
4		107	98	125	W 42-3		4.8	+0.03
5	@	47	38	75	L 7-38		8.6	−0.72
6		69	68	69	W 28-25		8.4	+0.10
7	@	31	24	49	L 13-23		8.2	−0.58
8		34	41	19	L 16-19		8.3	−0.75
9	@	13	16	24	L 7-51		7.8	−0.44
11		94	91	99	−12.681%	81%	6.3	+0.04−0.96
12		42	43	45	+1.845%	45%	8.5	+0.19−0.81
13	@	49	50	59	+5.037%	37%	8.7	+0.25−0.75

conference game · Result shows the final or PEAR's line · Resume: a played game's value, or what a win / loss would add

Resume

−3.11#84 RQIwins above the #12 team

Best win

Syracuse+0.10

Worst loss

West Virginia−0.84

Outlook

All games

proj. 5.6–6.4

6+56%

7+13%

ACC games

proj. 3.6–5.4

4+56%

5+13%

chance to win at least N games

Resume Path

0 = the #12 team's pace

Top 12

<1%line +0.67

Top 24

<1%line −0.45

Chance to finish in the top 12 / top 24 of final resume quality (50,000 simulated seasons). Line = where the 12th / 24th team usually finishes. Not playoff odds: conference title games and automatic bids aren't included.

Now −3.11
Projected −4.00
Win out −2.62
Top 12 line +0.67
Top 24 line −0.45
conference game
win / lossupcoming

Team Metrics

Primary Ratings

TSR

3.0#57

KFord

—

SP+

2.1#63

FPI

3.9#54

FEI

-0.01#65

MASSEY

7.66#62

DOKTER

50.25#56

SAGARIN

71.19#62

RQI

-3.113#84

SOS

10.86#48

Offense

Rating

27.90#65

Success

-0.01#91

PPA

-0.02#89

Rush

-0.04#101

Pass

-0.04#90

PPO

0.29#71

Drive Q

4.10#75

Defense

Rating

24.90#52

Success

-0.02#56

PPA

-0.05#57

Rush

0.03#94

Pass

-0.14#31

PPO

-0.41#53

Drive Q

-12.70#28