UCF

5-4 (3-3 Big 12) • Week 11 • 2026

@UCF_Football on X
TSR
4.3#51
Offense
30.6#50
Defense
26.3#65
SOS
10.64#37
PCR
0.630#50
RQI
-1.69#54
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Next game

Sat, Nov 14GQI 8.7
 
at
25.8–30.4
 
UCF-4.5
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WkOpponentRkOffDefResult
111376113W 73-6
2@414537L 7-12
39690114W 44-30
4436012W 21-13
5@222041L 17-27
6@241095L 28-42
8192419W 39-31
9323722L 9-41
10@545266W 33-32
11605569−4.662%
12555084−4.262%
13@767578−3.259%

conference game · Result shows the final or PEAR's line · Resume: a played game's value, or what a win / loss would add

Resume

−1.69#54 RQIwins above the #12 team
Best winBYU+0.34
Worst lossBaylor−0.74

Outlook

All games

proj. 6.8–5.2
6+94%
7+66%
8+23%

Big 12 games

proj. 4.8–4.2
4+94%
5+66%
6+23%

chance to win at least N games

Resume Path

0 = the #12 team's pace
Top 12
<1%line +0.67
Top 24
<1%line −0.45

Chance to finish in the top 12 / top 24 of final resume quality (50,000 simulated seasons). Line = where the 12th / 24th team usually finishes. Not playoff odds: conference title games and automatic bids aren't included.

  • Now −1.69
  • Projected −2.48
  • Win out −1.31
  • Top 12 line +0.67
  • Top 24 line −0.45
  • conference game
  • win / lossupcoming

Team Metrics

Primary Ratings

TSR
4.3#51
KFord
—
SP+
1.3#68
FPI
3.7#56
FEI
0.13#57
MASSEY
7.91#47
DOKTER
51.62#50
SAGARIN
74.18#49
RQI
-1.688#54
SOS
10.64#37

Offense

Rating
30.60#50
Success
0.04#40
PPA
0.01#75
Rush
-0.04#99
Pass
0.08#55
PPO
0.90#20
Drive Q
5.10#71

Defense

Rating
26.30#65
Success
0.02#109
PPA
-0.01#72
Rush
-0.08#43
Pass
0.10#113
PPO
-0.54#39
Drive Q
-22.50#4