Texas State

5-4 (3-2 Pac-12) • Week 11 • 2026

@TXStateFootball on X
TSR
2.5#61
Offense
33.1#39
Defense
30.6#120
SOS
10.87#52
PCR
0.566#66
RQI
-2.33#70
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Next game

Sat, Nov 14GQI 8.2
 
at
25.4–31.0
 
Texas State-5.5
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WkOpponentRkOffDefResult
1@675L 7-59
27463108L 26-31
35830127W 49-35
412940W 63-10
5@9793117L 29-31
711581138W 66-27
88710039W 20-17
9@362263L 45-46
10@6547105W 42-21
11717848−5.665%
1210210589−15.685%

conference game · Result shows the final or PEAR's line · Resume: a played game's value, or what a win / loss would add

Resume

−2.33#70 RQIwins above the #12 team
Best winOregon State+0.19
Worst lossSan Diego State−0.93

Outlook

All games

proj. 6.5–4.5
5+
6+95%
7+55%

Pac-12 games

proj. 4.5–2.5
3+
4+95%
5+55%

chance to win at least N games

Resume Path

0 = the #12 team's pace
Top 12
<1%line +0.67
Top 24
<1%line −0.45

Chance to finish in the top 12 / top 24 of final resume quality (50,000 simulated seasons). Line = where the 12th / 24th team usually finishes. Not playoff odds: conference title games and automatic bids aren't included.

  • Now −2.33
  • Projected −2.71
  • Win out −2.21
  • Top 12 line +0.67
  • Top 24 line −0.45
  • conference game
  • win / lossupcoming

Team Metrics

Primary Ratings

TSR
2.5#61
KFord
—
SP+
5.8#48
FPI
0.8#67
FEI
-0.05#70
MASSEY
7.51#71
DOKTER
50.09#58
SAGARIN
72.95#54
RQI
-2.329#70
SOS
10.87#52

Offense

Rating
33.10#39
Success
0.09#11
PPA
0.14#23
Rush
0.12#28
Pass
0.10#50
PPO
0.04#90
Drive Q
2.70#84

Defense

Rating
30.60#120
Success
-0.02#51
PPA
-0.09#40
Rush
-0.05#60
Pass
-0.07#59
PPO
0.02#93
Drive Q
-0.50#90