South Florida

6-3 (2-3 American Athletic) • Week 11 • 2026

@USFFootball on X
TSR
-2.7#77
Offense
20.0#97
Defense
22.6#31
SOS
11.63#132
PCR
0.529#71
RQI
-2.54#73
Advertisement

Next game

Thu, Nov 12GQI 7.5
 
at
26.2–23.4
 
Memphis-2.8
Advertisement
WkOpponentRkOffDefResult
111712566W 19-9
2@797689W 28-24
3879581W 59-17
4@129130110W 14-6
5109104110L 13-17
6@7463108L 24-31
7133136120W 29-2
911111777W 30-10
10@929562L 17-20
11555375+2.842%
12@9171133+0.249%
1310110397−10.376%

conference game · Result shows the final or PEAR's line · Resume: a played game's value, or what a win / loss would add

Resume

−2.54#73 RQIwins above the #12 team
Best winArmy+0.12
Worst lossTemple−0.97

Outlook

All games

proj. 7.7–4.3
6+
7+93%
8+59%
9+16%

American Athletic games

proj. 3.7–4.3
4+59%
5+16%

chance to win at least N games

Resume Path

0 = the #12 team's pace
Top 12
<1%line +0.67
Top 24
<1%line −0.45

Chance to finish in the top 12 / top 24 of final resume quality (50,000 simulated seasons). Line = where the 12th / 24th team usually finishes. Not playoff odds: conference title games and automatic bids aren't included.

  • Now −2.54
  • Projected −3.61
  • Win out −2.29
  • Top 12 line +0.67
  • Top 24 line −0.45
  • conference game
  • win / lossupcoming

Team Metrics

Primary Ratings

TSR
-2.7#77
KFord
—
SP+
4.0#55
FPI
-2.8#77
FEI
-0.15#75
MASSEY
7.31#79
DOKTER
42.96#79
SAGARIN
63.90#84
RQI
-2.536#73
SOS
11.63#132

Offense

Rating
20.00#97
Success
0.01#71
PPA
-0.02#93
Rush
-0.02#93
Pass
-0.14#115
PPO
0.41#57
Drive Q
1.70#88

Defense

Rating
22.60#31
Success
-0.02#62
PPA
-0.02#68
Rush
-0.11#31
Pass
0.04#104
PPO
-0.39#57
Drive Q
-11.90#34