Nevada

3-6 (2-3 Mountain West) • Week 11 • 2026

@NevadaFootball on X

TSR

-10.1#103

Offense

15.6#113

Defense

25.7#59

SOS

11.23#85

PCR

0.302#116

RQI

-4.85#118

Next game

Sat, Nov 14GQI 2.7

26.2–16.0

76%

24%

Wk	Opponent	Rk	Off	Def	Result	Win%	GQI	Resume
1		121	115	123	W 49-14		4.8	+0.02
2		2	2	6	L 7-20		5.9	−0.94
3	@	123	118	126	L 20-27		4.5	−0.97
4		80	89	54	L 33-36		5.8	−0.93
6	@	137	136	128	W 30-13		2.6	+0.01
7	@	62	82	15	L 17-31		5.3	−0.80
8		111	121	59	W 28-13		6.0	+0.03
9	@	14	23	7	L 0-27		3.8	−0.45
10		45	59	13	L 3-31		4.7	−0.81
11	@	134	132	136	−10.276%	76%	2.7	+0.01−0.99
12		108	119	59	−4.462%	62%	6.1	+0.03−0.97
13	@	89	86	95	+7.730%	30%	6.1	+0.10−0.90

conference game · Result shows the final or PEAR's line · Resume: a played game's value, or what a win / loss would add

Resume

−4.85#118 RQIwins above the #12 team

Best win

San José State+0.03

Worst loss

Middle Tennessee−0.97

Outlook

All games

proj. 4.7–7.3

6+14%

Mountain West games

proj. 3.7–4.3

4+60%

5+14%

chance to win at least N games

Resume Path

0 = the #12 team's pace

Top 12

<1%line +0.67

Top 24

<1%line −0.45

Chance to finish in the top 12 / top 24 of final resume quality (50,000 simulated seasons). Line = where the 12th / 24th team usually finishes. Not playoff odds: conference title games and automatic bids aren't included.

Now −4.85
Projected −6.04
Win out −4.72
Top 12 line +0.67
Top 24 line −0.45
conference game
win / lossupcoming

Team Metrics

Primary Ratings

TSR

-10.1#103

KFord

—

SP+

-6.4#97

FPI

-9.4#97

FEI

-0.44#96

MASSEY

6.79#109

DOKTER

37.11#97

SAGARIN

57.51#103

RQI

-4.852#118

SOS

11.23#85

Offense

Rating

15.60#113

Success

-0.07#133

PPA

-0.06#111

Rush

-0.15#126

Pass

-0.08#101

PPO

0.47#50

Drive Q

-3.70#112

Defense

Rating

25.70#59

Success

-0.03#41

PPA

0.01#80

Rush

0.04#95

Pass

0.00#84

PPO

0.15#107

Drive Q

-9.60#43