Missouri State

3-6 (2-3 Conference USA) • Week 11 • 2026

@MOStateFootball on X

TSR

-16.5#125

Offense

13.7#123

Defense

30.1#116

SOS

11.28#90

PCR

0.273#121

RQI

-4.96#119

Next game

Sat, Nov 14GQI 5.2

20.3–23.2

42%

58%

Wk	Opponent	Rk	Off	Def	Result	Win%	GQI	Resume
1	@	26	31	17	L 0-50		2.6	−0.56
2		36	56	34	W 48-14		2.1	+0.00
3		118	110	115	L 24-30		4.9	−0.98
4	@	31	24	49	L 24-34		2.7	−0.58
6	@	121	115	123	L 13-34		5.1	−0.97
7		116	108	107	W 24-21		4.8	+0.02
8	@	107	98	125	L 38-61		4.6	−0.95
9		131	134	117	W 24-3		3.6	+0.01
10	@	117	125	66	L 20-23		4.8	−0.96
11		123	124	113	−2.958%	58%	5.2	+0.02−0.98
12	@	83	96	45	+15.315%	15%	3.9	+0.11−0.89
13		51	73	24	+17.812%	12%	3.2	+0.14−0.86

conference game · Result shows the final or PEAR's line · Resume: a played game's value, or what a win / loss would add

Resume

−4.96#119 RQIwins above the #12 team

Best win

Kennesaw State+0.02

Worst loss

Marshall−0.98

Outlook

All games

proj. 3.9–8.1

6+1%

Conference USA games

proj. 2.9–5.1

4+15%

5+1%

chance to win at least N games

Resume Path

0 = the #12 team's pace

Top 12

<1%line +0.67

Top 24

<1%line −0.45

Chance to finish in the top 12 / top 24 of final resume quality (50,000 simulated seasons). Line = where the 12th / 24th team usually finishes. Not playoff odds: conference title games and automatic bids aren't included.

Now −4.96
Projected −6.85
Win out −4.70
Top 12 line +0.67
Top 24 line −0.45
conference game
win / lossupcoming

Team Metrics

Primary Ratings

TSR

-16.5#125

KFord

—

SP+

-14.0#121

FPI

-15.3#123

FEI

-0.86#125

MASSEY

6.46#125

DOKTER

27.91#125

SAGARIN

51.73#124

RQI

-4.959#119

SOS

11.28#90

Offense

Rating

13.70#123

Success

-0.04#121

PPA

-0.07#114

Rush

-0.21#133

Pass

0.07#58

PPO

0.11#85

Drive Q

-11.70#132

Defense

Rating

30.10#116

Success

0.02#110

PPA

0.12#126

Rush

0.11#122

Pass

0.12#117

PPO

0.26#116

Drive Q

15.00#137