Mississippi State

4-5 (2-5 SEC) • Week 11 • 2026

@HailStateFB on X
TSR
7.5#44
Offense
33.7#34
Defense
26.2#64
SOS
9.67#1
PCR
0.662#43
RQI
-1.48#48
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Next game

Sat, Nov 14GQI 9.2
 
at
28.4–30.0
 
Mississippi State-1.7
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WkOpponentRkOffDefResult
1132133134W 62-13
2@506833W 38-13
3@181835W 41-34
4212722W 31-24
53218L 23-56
7@7613L 0-31
823338L 15-23
9@675L 3-31
10676073L 23-25
11384041−1.655%
12141521−26.895%
13@12853+13.119%

conference game · Result shows the final or PEAR's line · Resume: a played game's value, or what a win / loss would add

Resume

−1.48#48 RQIwins above the #12 team
Best winSouth Carolina+0.50
Worst lossVanderbilt−0.90

Outlook

All games

proj. 5.7–6.3
6+61%
7+10%

SEC games

proj. 2.7–6.3
4+10%

chance to win at least N games

Resume Path

0 = the #12 team's pace
Top 12
<1%line +0.67
Top 24
<1%line −0.45

Chance to finish in the top 12 / top 24 of final resume quality (50,000 simulated seasons). Line = where the 12th / 24th team usually finishes. Not playoff odds: conference title games and automatic bids aren't included.

  • Now −1.48
  • Projected −1.98
  • Win out −0.67
  • Top 12 line +0.67
  • Top 24 line −0.45
  • conference game
  • win / lossupcoming

Team Metrics

Primary Ratings

TSR
7.5#44
KFord
—
SP+
3.8#56
FPI
7.0#46
FEI
0.46#34
MASSEY
8.01#42
DOKTER
57.67#37
SAGARIN
76.33#45
RQI
-1.479#48
SOS
9.67#1

Offense

Rating
33.70#34
Success
-0.02#102
PPA
-0.08#122
Rush
-0.04#103
Pass
-0.16#119
PPO
0.07#89
Drive Q
6.80#61

Defense

Rating
26.20#64
Success
-0.01#71
PPA
0.05#105
Rush
-0.08#41
Pass
0.15#124
PPO
0.13#104
Drive Q
-2.50#83