Michigan State

3-6 (1-5 Big Ten) • Week 11 • 2026

@MSU_Football on X

TSR

2.0#64

Offense

25.8#74

Defense

23.8#39

SOS

10.12#15

PCR

0.500#78

RQI

-3.09#81

Next game

Sat, Nov 14GQI 8.2

27.4–24.0

60%

40%

Wk	Opponent	Rk	Off	Def	Result	Win%	GQI	Resume
1		83	85	82	W 30-20		7.2	+0.06
2		128	129	101	W 35-7		3.0	+0.01
3	@	2	4	10	L 10-27		6.7	−0.23
4		28	35	15	L 13-31		7.9	−0.72
5	@	35	48	6	L 3-31		8.1	−0.61
6		39	44	35	L 37-38		8.2	−0.79
7		30	28	32	L 21-24		8.0	−0.73
8	@	14	23	7	L 10-28		7.6	−0.45
10	@	37	64	2	W 15-6		8.2	+0.36
11		40	46	28	+3.440%	40%	8.2	+0.20−0.80
12		9	9	30	+14.416%	16%	7.3	+0.47−0.53
13	@	89	79	112	−4.462%	62%	6.8	+0.10−0.90

conference game · Result shows the final or PEAR's line · Resume: a played game's value, or what a win / loss would add

Resume

−3.09#81 RQIwins above the #12 team

Best win

Michigan+0.36

Worst loss

Illinois−0.79

Outlook

All games

proj. 4.2–7.8

6+4%

Big Ten games

proj. 2.2–6.8

4+4%

chance to win at least N games

Resume Path

0 = the #12 team's pace

Top 12

<1%line +0.67

Top 24

<1%line −0.45

Chance to finish in the top 12 / top 24 of final resume quality (50,000 simulated seasons). Line = where the 12th / 24th team usually finishes. Not playoff odds: conference title games and automatic bids aren't included.

Now −3.09
Projected −4.13
Win out −2.32
Top 12 line +0.67
Top 24 line −0.45
conference game
win / lossupcoming

Team Metrics

Primary Ratings

TSR

2.0#64

KFord

—

SP+

-2.4#83

FPI

2.2#61

FEI

0.05#61

MASSEY

7.69#60

DOKTER

50.00#60

SAGARIN

73.41#52

RQI

-3.089#81

SOS

10.12#15

Offense

Rating

25.80#74

Success

0.02#64

PPA

-0.03#100

Rush

-0.04#100

Pass

-0.01#82

PPO

0.21#80

Drive Q

7.20#59

Defense

Rating

23.80#39

Success

-0.02#48

PPA

-0.10#33

Rush

-0.10#37

Pass

-0.14#32

PPO

-0.36#61

Drive Q

-7.20#53