Illinois

6-3 (4-2 Big Ten) • Week 11 • 2026

@IlliniFootball on X

TSR

8.7#39

Offense

31.8#44

Defense

23.2#36

SOS

10.60#34

PCR

0.724#33

RQI

-0.79#37

Next game

Fri, Nov 13GQI 9.0

22.5–33.2

23%

77%

Wk	Opponent	Rk	Off	Def	Result	Win%	GQI	Resume
1		111	117	77	W 42-23		4.0	+0.03
2		34	41	19	L 27-31		9.2	−0.75
3		20	32	15	W 48-10		2.1	+0.01
4	@	5	5	9	L 19-42		8.6	−0.27
5		67	55	89	L 17-24		8.1	−0.90
6	@	64	74	39	W 38-37		8.2	+0.20
8		9	9	30	W 21-10		8.8	+0.47
9	@	75	66	105	W 20-17		7.3	+0.14
10		28	35	15	W 24-13		9.2	+0.28
11	@	14	23	7	+10.723%	23%	9.0	+0.55−0.45
12		15	29	4	+4.039%	39%	9.0	+0.37−0.63
13	@	30	28	32	+6.234%	34%	9.2	+0.42−0.58

conference game · Result shows the final or PEAR's line · Resume: a played game's value, or what a win / loss would add

Resume

−0.79#37 RQIwins above the #12 team

Best win

Oregon+0.47

Worst loss

Purdue−0.90

Outlook

All games

proj. 7.0–5.0

7+69%

8+24%

9+3%

Big Ten games

proj. 5.0–4.0

5+69%

6+24%

7+3%

chance to win at least N games

Resume Path

0 = the #12 team's pace

Top 12

1%line +0.67

Top 24

16%line −0.45

Chance to finish in the top 12 / top 24 of final resume quality (50,000 simulated seasons). Line = where the 12th / 24th team usually finishes. Not playoff odds: conference title games and automatic bids aren't included.

Now −0.79
Projected −1.50
Win out +0.55
Top 12 line +0.67
Top 24 line −0.45
conference game
win / lossupcoming

Team Metrics

Primary Ratings

TSR

8.7#39

KFord

—

SP+

8.0#43

FPI

7.7#43

FEI

0.35#42

MASSEY

8.18#32

DOKTER

55.82#43

SAGARIN

79.42#36

RQI

-0.790#37

SOS

10.60#34

Offense

Rating

31.80#44

Success

0.06#22

PPA

0.14#19

Rush

0.00#84

Pass

0.23#19

PPO

0.30#70

Drive Q

15.20#21

Defense

Rating

23.20#36

Success

0.03#118

PPA

0.06#110

Rush

0.05#100

Pass

0.04#102

PPO

-0.42#52

Drive Q

4.50#115