Ball State

3-6 (2-3 Mid-American) • Week 11 • 2026

@BallStateFB on X

TSR

-20.5#130

Offense

11.5#127

Defense

32.0#132

SOS

10.89#58

PCR

0.307#115

RQI

-4.47#114

Next game

Wed, Nov 11GQI 3.7

22.6–19.2

60%

40%

Wk	Opponent	Rk	Off	Def	Result	Win%	GQI	Resume
1	@	5	5	9	L 3-56		2.9	−0.27
2		58	26	107	W 41-17		1.7	+0.00
3	@	51	73	24	L 15-51		2.4	−0.76
4	@	133	136	120	L 13-26		3.6	−0.99
5		83	85	82	L 24-39		2.9	−0.94
6	@	30	28	32	L 14-45		2.2	−0.58
7	@	129	130	110	W 32-31		4.1	+0.02
8		138	138	119	W 34-17		2.6	+0.00
10	@	126	128	95	L 30-31		3.9	−0.97
11		119	126	81	+3.440%	40%	3.7	+0.02−0.98
12	@	95	101	57	+16.414%	14%	3.1	+0.08−0.92
13		114	120	71	+5.036%	36%	3.5	+0.02−0.98

conference game · Result shows the final or PEAR's line · Resume: a played game's value, or what a win / loss would add

Resume

−4.47#114 RQIwins above the #12 team

Best win

Bowling Green+0.02

Worst loss

Kent State−0.99

Outlook

All games

proj. 3.9–8.1

6+2%

Mid-American games

proj. 2.9–5.1

4+21%

5+2%

chance to win at least N games

Resume Path

0 = the #12 team's pace

Top 12

<1%line +0.67

Top 24

<1%line −0.45

Chance to finish in the top 12 / top 24 of final resume quality (50,000 simulated seasons). Line = where the 12th / 24th team usually finishes. Not playoff odds: conference title games and automatic bids aren't included.

Now −4.48
Projected −6.45
Win out −4.35
Top 12 line +0.67
Top 24 line −0.45
conference game
win / lossupcoming

Team Metrics

Primary Ratings

TSR

-20.5#130

KFord

—

SP+

-19.5#130

FPI

-20.0#130

FEI

-1.09#132

MASSEY

6.23#130

DOKTER

24.49#130

SAGARIN

48.60#130

RQI

-4.475#114

SOS

10.89#58

Offense

Rating

11.50#127

Success

0.02#59

PPA

0.09#41

Rush

0.09#40

Pass

0.10#48

PPO

0.45#53

Drive Q

-0.30#99

Defense

Rating

32.00#132

Success

0.02#107

PPA

0.14#131

Rush

0.02#89

Pass

0.24#131

PPO

1.03#138

Drive Q

8.10#129