Arkansas State

4-5 (2-3 Sun Belt) • Week 11 • 2026

@AStateFB on X

TSR

-10.9#106

Offense

17.6#106

Defense

28.5#100

SOS

11.49#113

PCR

0.353#109

RQI

-4.24#108

Next game

Sat, Nov 14GQI 6.2

21.5–23.8

44%

56%

Wk	Opponent	Rk	Off	Def	Result	Win%	GQI	Resume
1	@	55	53	75	L 24-42		4.9	−0.78
2		107	106	100	W 52-7		1.2	+0.00
3	@	43	60	12	L 7-31		4.4	−0.68
4		116	108	107	W 17-14		5.8	+0.02
5	@	83	84	83	L 20-23		5.7	−0.89
6		105	94	130	L 49-56		6.4	−0.97
7	@	127	114	135	W 23-13		4.4	+0.03
8		96	90	114	W 38-32		6.1	+0.04
10		132	133	134	L 17-19		2.9	−0.99
11	@	110	108	97	+2.344%	44%	6.2	+0.05−0.95
12	@	70	67	80	+14.217%	17%	5.2	+0.17−0.83
13		113	112	91	−4.061%	61%	6.1	+0.03−0.97

conference game · Result shows the final or PEAR's line · Resume: a played game's value, or what a win / loss would add

Resume

−4.24#108 RQIwins above the #12 team

Best win

Georgia State+0.04

Worst loss

UL Monroe−0.99

Outlook

All games

proj. 5.2–6.8

6+35%

7+4%

Sun Belt games

proj. 3.2–4.8

4+35%

5+4%

chance to win at least N games

Resume Path

0 = the #12 team's pace

Top 12

<1%line +0.67

Top 24

<1%line −0.45

Chance to finish in the top 12 / top 24 of final resume quality (50,000 simulated seasons). Line = where the 12th / 24th team usually finishes. Not playoff odds: conference title games and automatic bids aren't included.

Now −4.24
Projected −5.78
Win out −3.99
Top 12 line +0.67
Top 24 line −0.45
conference game
win / lossupcoming

Team Metrics

Primary Ratings

TSR

-10.9#106

KFord

—

SP+

-7.0#98

FPI

-10.3#107

FEI

-0.55#104

MASSEY

6.73#112

DOKTER

35.08#106

SAGARIN

56.37#109

RQI

-4.235#108

SOS

11.49#113

Offense

Rating

17.60#106

Success

0.05#36

PPA

0.03#68

Rush

0.04#61

Pass

0.03#73

PPO

0.31#68

Drive Q

-1.00#104

Defense

Rating

28.50#100

Success

0.02#113

PPA

0.09#122

Rush

0.15#131

Pass

0.04#101

PPO

-0.07#89

Drive Q

2.10#107